2013 update

So I've been quiet here the past few months, in part that's been because I've automated large parts of my trade selection and posting the trades here hasn't been part of my workflow.

Almost all of my trades have been a variation on the strategy I suggested for trading Blackberry, which is selling put options. Essentially I've isolated a short-list of stocks that I'm willing to trade, and sell out of the money put options that I hope won't get exercised. Here's a breakdown of all my trades

The Trades

Option Qty Opening Date Opening Price Closing Price Gain
DOW Oct 25 '13 $39 2 10/21/2013 0.17 0.00 25.98
EMC Oct 25 '13 $23.50 4 10/21/2013 0.09 0.00 26.95
F Oct 25 '13 $16.50 6 10/21/2013 0.05 0.00 19.92
GILD Oct 25 '13 $64 1 10/21/2013 0.55 0.00 47.49
HAL Oct 25 '13 $49.50 2 10/21/2013 0.34 0.00 59.98
WMB Nov 01 '13 $33 3 10/21/2013 0.16 0.00 39.46
UPS Oct 25 '13 $89 3 10/24/2013 0.14 0.00 33.46
AIG Nov 01 '13 $48 2 10/28/2013 0.08 0.00 7.98
GM Nov 01 '13 $33 3 10/28/2013 0.08 0.00 15.46
WMB Nov 01 '13 $34.50 2 10/28/2013 0.17 0.00 25.98
SBUX Nov 01 '13 $74 1 10/28/2013 0.26 0.00 18.49
OXY Nov 01 '13 $89 1 10/28/2013 0.16 0.00 8.49
GILD Nov 01 '13 $64 1 10/29/2013 0.19 0.00 11.49
WMB Nov 01 '13 $34.50 2 10/30/2013 0.14 0.00 19.98
SBUX Nov 01 '13 $74 1 10/30/2013 0.22 0.00 14.49
WMB Nov 01 '13 $34.50 2 10/31/2013 0.10 0.00 11.98
MDLZ Nov 08 '13 $30.50 3 11/04/2013 0.08 0.00 15.46
APC Nov 08 '13 $89 2 11/04/2013 0.33 0.00 57.98
QCOM Nov 08 '13 $65 1 11/04/2013 0.20 0.00 12.49
APC Nov 08 '13 $89 1 11/05/2013 0.19 0.00 11.49
QCOM Nov 08 '13 $65 1 11/05/2013 0.18 0.00 10.49
MDLZ Nov 08 '13 $31 3 11/05/2013 0.08 0.00 15.46
MDLZ Nov 08 '13 $31 3 11/06/2013 0.08 0.00 15.46
QCOM Nov 08 '13 $64.50 1 11/06/2013 0.16 0.00 8.49
CSCO Nov 16 '13 $21.50 12 11/11/2013 0.08 0.00 82.82
CSCO Nov 16 '13 $22 -4 11/13/2013 0.09 0.47 -166.61
CSCO Nov 16 '13 $22 4 11/13/2013 0.00 0.00 0
LOW Nov 22 '13 $48 -4 11/18/2013 0.18 0.14 0.23
LOW Nov 22 '13 $48 2 11/18/2013 0.00 0.00 0
HPQ Nov 29 '13 $23 12 11/22/2013 0.32 0.00 370.82
SPLK Dec 21 '13 $67.50 3 11/22/2013 1.25 0.00 366.46
FB Dec 06 '13 $43.50 6 11/29/2013 0.13 0.00 67.92
GMCR Dec 06 '13 $62.50 2 11/29/2013 0.26 0.00 43.98
TSLA Dec 27 '13 $100 1 12/02/2013 1.03 0.00 95.49
MU Dec 13 '13 $20.50 35 12/04/2013 0.19 0.00 639.96
FB Dec 13 '13 $44 5 12/05/2013 0.17 0.00 75.43
VRTX Dec 13 '13 $62 6 12/09/2013 0.35 0.00 199.91
SHLD Dec 21 '13 $41 20 12/16/2013 0.40 0.00 782.69
MU Jan 03 '14 $20 21 12/23/2013 0.17 0.00 339.18
MU Dec 27 '13 $20 70 12/24/2013 0.02 0.00 96.94
MU Jan 03 '14 $20 10 12/24/2013 0.07 0.00 64.85
MU Jan 03 '14 $20 10 12/24/2013 0.07 0.00 57.86

Retrospective

So the TL;DR; for the last quarter is:

  • 42 total trades
  • 39 successful trades (93%)
  • Average trade length of 6 days
  • Average gain of $86.97
  • Total gain of $3,652.83

All in all things are looking up. That said the market in general has been pretty strong over the same period so it's hard to know if it's due to smart trades or just a rising tide raising all ships. You may also notice that the trades have changed slightly each month. October was a bit of a scatter-shot approach to see what worked while minimising risk. In total there were 16 trades in October, but the average gain per trade was only $24.22. November saw me increase the size of the trades I was placing so the 17 trades saw the average return more than double to $53.70. December I decided to scale back the number of trades and instead go bigger on the ones I did place so there was only 9 trades for an average return of $261.31.

That also means almost 2/3 of the total gain for the quarter were for the December trades. It'll be interesting to see if this fewer but larger trade success will continue into the new year.

Published on in Trades